Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Why we must vote for Obama
Come on guys...Obama is the best chance we have to take back the White House. Putting aside my own personal interests, the best thing for the Democratic party will be to select Obama as their candidate. I do not think Hillary can win. Indeed, I think she will almost ensure a McCain victory (unless people finally realize the "surge" in Iraq is not a real thing). The problem with Hillary is that she relies too heavily on traditional Democrats. As it stands, there are very few districts that really decide a presidential election. For the most part, they almost always vote the same way. So what happens every election is that it comes down to a few key districts that decide who the next president will be. The great thing about Obama is that he disrupts a lot of these "swing" districts in ways that tend to favor him. If you look at the exit polls and results from the primaries, Obama is pulling in a record number of votes in districts that are not traditionally Democratic voting districts (Northern Nevada and Idaho, for example). And not only is he doing that, but he is mobilizing a HUGE portion of the "independent" voters and people who have not traditionally voted. All one needs to do is look at the incredible turnouts and the fact that blacks are voting at record highs. Combined, all of these things contribute to a perfect strategy for beating the Republicans--especially a McCain who is going to get a lot of the independents. More importantly, if McCain runs a "good" campaign, it will not be hard to demonize Hillary and bring up old emotions surrounding the Clintons. If Obama could easily do it, believe me, the Republicans will have no problem. And if that happens, McCain will have no problem winning the White House which is the last thing we want (He is a militaristic, moron who among other things will send us into so much debt we will never recover). So, there are only two options: 1) Obama has to win the candidacy; 2) there must be a Hillary/Obama ticket in the end. Otherwise, 4 more years of stupidity.
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My prediction is that as of her revelation that her campaign is cash-strapped she will never recover and this thing is going to go to Obama. Especially since he will be the big winner on Saturday. It will be the nail in the coffin. I think a lot of dems want to avoid a protracted battle and have just been unsure which horse was strongest. Her campaign weekness will send folks to Obama simply based on perception alone. Although there are plenty of concrete reasons to go for him as you point out (and many you don't).
I'm confident, but then again GW got two terms so I never underestimate the absurdity of politics in this country. Dems would be shooting themselves in the face (skip the foot) if they sent Hillary onto the national election. It would be an epic blunder.
Brian
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